Study: Pinal is 2nd most at-risk U.S. county for being uninhabitable

A recent study says Pinal County is the second most at-risk county in the United States of being uninhabitable in the near future due to climate change.

Five other Arizona counties, including Maricopa County, are also at risk, according to a ProPublica and New York Times Magazine analysis of exclusive climate data from the Rhodium Group, an independent data-analytics firm.

The study analyzed several metrics – rising temperatures, rainfall, agriculture yields and economic damages, for example – to predict those U.S. counties that could become uninhabitable in the next 20-40 years due to climate change.

In addition to Pinal and Maricopa counties, the others in Arizona in the top 100 most at-risk counties included Cochise, Graham, Mohave and Yuma. Beaufort County, South Carolina, led the national list due to two metrics primarily – humidity and sea rise.

The study ranked six perils from 1 to 10, with 10 being worst. Pinal scored a 10 for heat, 8 for farm crop yields, 7 for economic damages, 6 for very large fires and wet bulb (heat plus excessive humidity) and 1 for sea level rise.

Under a moderate emissions scenario, the analysis projects as much as a 44 percent decline in from crop yields between 2040 and 2060.

Arizona had record-setting heat this summer, with the most 110-degree days and 115-degree days in a calendar year, according to the National Weather Service. It also had the hottest fall on record.

The state went without a monsoon season this year, with the lack of rainfall helping to drive hotter temperatures. The rising temperatures will threaten agricultural production in Arizona, the study projects.

Rhodium Group researchers estimated that under one extreme warming scenario, between 2040 and 2060 extreme temperatures will become typical in the South and Southwest, with some Arizona counties seeing temperatures above 95 degrees for half the year.

The study predicted that by 2050 southwestern Arizona will see soaring wet bulb temperatures due to sun angle, wind speed, cloud cover and other factors reacting to high temperatures, Hannah Hess of the Rhodium Group told Pro Publica.