Maricopa’s future trade area: Projected population 458,000

As city leaders work to attract high-paying jobs, big retailers and more industrial development, they have an ace up their sleeves: Maricopa is projected to continue growing rapidly in population and job growth.

As of February 2021, there were 91,835 people in the Maricopa trade area, which includes the city, unincorporated Pinal County, Ak-Chin Indian Community, Gila River Indian Community and Stanfield.

A “trade area” is the geographic area from which a business enterprise or center of retail or wholesale distribution draws most of its business. In simpler terms, it is the greatest distance consumers are willing to travel to buy goods and services.

The Maricopa trade area had 28,344 single-family homes in February 2021, according to Nathan Steele, the city’s chief economic development officer.

But consider this.

The 23,956 homes in Maricopa a little less than a year ago will grow to 65,000 homes when another 41,000 or so already approved within city limits are built and sold to buyers.

Growth will be even more dramatic in unincorporated Pinal County, where the current 3,241 homes in the trade area grow to 75,000-plus when all residential developments already approved are constructed.

“If you (include) the entitled lots — meaning those already approved to be built – across the same area, you’re looking at a trade area population of more than 458,000 when all is said and done,” Steele said.

That does not include projects in the planning phases, multi-family projects or homes in the surrounding communities, he said.

A Maricopa metro area of 458,000 would be about the equivalent of the combined populations of Chandler and Tempe today.

And while many of the coming homes — about 75% — would lie outside Maricopa’s city limits today if built, the belief is many of those will want to be annexed to gain access to better city-provided services (police and fire protection) and community amenities (parks, schools and libraries).

That already is happening. In September, City Council approved pre-annexation of 5,700 acres south and west of the city.