Seasonal sales sluggishness par for the course

HomeSmart Premier Realtor Dayv Morgan

The housing market is beginning to calm with inventory rising and prices flattening a bit. And with the typically slower fall season coming, residents looking to sell should not worry — a cooling of the market this time of year is normal in Maricopa, and not the sign of a market crash.

Despite the weather being much more ideal for moving, the fourth quarter is often the slowest of the year. And though homes are still selling quickly, sellers should no longer expect 10 offers over the asking price the first day on the market like their neighbors saw just a few months ago.

The end of summer usually brings sluggishness to our market. For example, according to Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, in September 2018 the median price for a resale closing was $209,250, and it stayed basically the same through December when the average was $210,000. The same was true in 2019, when the median price decreased by $950 in the same period.

That trend is also seen in the average sales price in 2020. Even in the hottest market in memory, prices only rose $2,000 – from $271,600 to $273,600 – between September and December.

Several signs point to 2021 being similar to previous years. The first is inventory levels. The number of active listings has nearly tripled in the last 90 days. Buyers now have more choices and can spend a little more time looking for that perfect home instead of rushing to make an offer.

Another indicator of the slowing market is the ratio of sales price to asking price. In June, July and August, homes sold for 104%, 104% and 102% of asking price, respectively. Fewer homes are eliciting bidding wars, which is keeping prices in check.

The exception to this trend is Province, which will likely see an uptick in sales. Last year, more homes sold in December than in June and July combined. This may be because as a 55+ community, sales are less tied to the school year than in other communities.

Dayv Morgan is a Maricopa Realtor and owner of HomeSmart Premier. He is a 15-year resident of the city.


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This story was previously published in the October edition of InMaricopa Magazine.