AZ researchers: 3-week lockdown needed to avoid COVID ‘catastrophe’

A shelter-in-place order in Arizona, from Tuesday through Dec. 22, is necessary to avoid a public health “catastrophe,” a team of coronavirus researchers is warning.

In a Nov. 27 letter to the state Department of Health Services, several members of the Arizona COVID-19 Modeling Team said a hospital crisis – in-patient and ICU beds at full capacity – is coming in just weeks, no matter what action is taken.

“However, if action is not immediately taken, then it risks a catastrophe on a scale of the worst natural disaster the state has ever experienced. It would be akin to facing a major forest fire without evacuation orders,” the letter said. “If nothing is done, hospitals will be forced to decide who gets care and who does not. Importantly, this will impact all Arizonans not just those with Covid-19 disease.”

People with serious chronic medical conditions – heart disease, diabetes, cancer and stroke, included – will get no care or limited care, the researchers wrote. With the surge of the virus, hospitals will not have adequate physical resources and personnel to provide timely care, and “more Arizonans will die of heart attacks, strokes, and injuries from car accidents.”

The University of Arizona modeling team have been analyzing virus trends since the early days of the pandemic.

“Any delay to reverse the current trajectory of Covid-19 viral transmission will cause more needless illness and deaths,” they wrote. “Given the imminent availability of a vaccine, actions not taken will result in preventable tragedies – people who could have been saved by a vaccine in the near future will die or suffer long-term disability.”

The researchers said the state-wide shelter-in-place ordinance should close bars and indoor dining.

They also recommended a statewide mask mandate that permits local enforcement, including fines on businesses and individuals who do not comply.

Acknowledging the economic hardship imposed by the shelter-in-place order, the researchers said the state should pass emergency relief measures to help small businesses and families impacted by the closures.

“It should also undertake additional measures to alleviate food Insecurity, to prevent evictions and foreclosures, and to protect access to health,” they wrote.

In lieu of a state-wide mandate, they said county and municipal leaders should be granted greater authority to enact their own shelter-in-place orders, business closures and restrictions on public gatherings.

According to the state COVID-19 dashboard, 4,136 new cases were reported today, with 36 new deaths. The statewide positivity rate is 10%.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, there have been 322,774 cases and 6,624 deaths.

In Pinal County, 202 new cases and one new death were reported. All told, the county has seen 16,312 cases and 259 deaths. The county positivity rate is 8.9%.

In Maricopa (zip codes 85138 and 85139), 2,197 total cases have been reported.