Best chance of rain so far this winter is on the way

The best chance so far this winter for rainfall in Maricopa is coming, with precipitation looking most likely later this week.

A weather disturbance poised to move through the Southwest from Tuesday through Thursday will bring variable chances for rain each day, according to the National Weather Service in Phoenix.

Rain showers are forecast to develop, primarily in southwest Arizona, from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning with precipitation chances increasing to 40%-50% from Wednesday night into Thursday for the Phoenix metro area.

Forecasters said there was still some uncertainty with the weather system, including the location and movement of the heaviest rain bands as well as the storm track, which will impact rainfall amounts.

There is an 80% chance of fairly widespread moderate precipitation in the Phoenix region with a couple of isolated embedded thunderstorms. There is a smaller chance, about 20%, of more southern track with moderate rainfall staying in southern Arizona, and only light showers moving toward Phoenix.

There is only a 10% chance of numerous bands of storms creating heavy rainfall that results in flooding of numerous locations.

Forecasters said they are looking at a second storm system that could bring more rain next weekend.

Monday, Martin Luther King Day, will be sunny with a high near 74 and a calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47, at night.

Here is the forecast for the rest of the week, according to the weather service:

Tuesday: A 30% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday night: A 20% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday: A 20% chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. East wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday night: A 40% chance of showers, mainly after 11 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11 a.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 67. East wind around 5 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday night: A 50% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming south southeast after midnight. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday: A 30% chance of showers, mainly before 11 a.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 68. South southeast wind around 5 mph.

Friday night: A 40% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. South wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: A 40% chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Southwest wind around 10 mph.

Saturday night: A 40% of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday: A 30% chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.