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Stolen election crusader Cavanaugh describes his primary loss as ‘statistically impossible’

Maricopa’s supervisor takes a leaf out of the Kari Lake playbook.  

Kevin Cavanaugh called BS on the primary election results during a Pinal County Board of Supervisors special meeting Monday, citing what he believed were anomalies in several county Republican races. Now, he’s calling on Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes to investigate what he calls an “impossible” result.

Cavanaugh said his team discovered “mathematical problems and statistical problems with the results in six local elections,” including his own bid for Pinal County sheriff. He noted this did not appear to occur with votes in state and federal races.  

In a 21-page document, Cavanaugh’s team — which comprised himself, his wife and his administrative manager — claimed ballot tallies between early and election day voting featured “the exact same percentage splits” between candidates, which continued even as the numbers were updated.

If you’re having deja vu, on election day in 2020, then-candidate Cavanaugh wasted no time before accusing the Pinal County Recorder’s Office of “election meddling,” saying that he “may have no choice but to file a recall election to ensure a fair outcome.”

A ‘statistically impossible’ result? 

For 13 candidates in the races for county sheriff, assessor, attorney and three district supervisors, the ratios between candidates did not appear to fluctuate.  

For example, county attorney candidates Kent Volkmer and Brad Miller maintained the same ratio of votes between early and election day ballots: 45.4% and 54.4% respectively. This means Volkmer, for example, received just over 45% of the vote on both early ballots and those cast on election day.

It’s odd, but not impossible, Volkmer told Votebeat. 

“It never changed from initial drop, earlies, to late earlies. I was surprised personally that I didn’t make up ground,” he told the publication. 

In the five other races, the percentage difference between ballot types ranged between 0.1% and 0.5%. 

Calculations provided by Supervisor Kevin Cavanaugh's team show the ratio results between early and election day voting for multiple candidates. [Courtesy Kevin Cavanaugh]
Calculations provided by Supervisor Kevin Cavanaugh’s team show the ratio results between early and election day voting for multiple candidates. [Courtesy Kevin Cavanaugh]
“This is possible, but to have it occur more than a couple races in a county is rare,” Cavanaugh’s document read. “To have it occur in six races among 13 candidates is statistically impossible.” 

However, not everyone was having his argument.  

‘Grandstanding over governance’ 

Cavanaugh’s attempts to stir doubts over election integrity ramped up in the weeks before Arizona’s July 30 primary.  

He sowed the seeds earlier this year when he claimed Pinal County Recorder Dana Lewis published false and defamatory accusations against him, asserting she would exercise bias in his election. He displayed similar faithlessness in the system during a July town hall in Maricopa, an email he sent InMaricopa the day before the election and during a board of supervisors meeting last week.  

However, his claims mostly arose from the hearsay of anonymous tipsters and Chairman Mike Goodman grew audibly frustrated with Cavanaugh’s attempts to disrupt Monday’s supervisory meeting in Florence.

“This is not a place that needs to be used for a particular candidate to make a statement,” Goodman said.  

The two sniped back and forth for a few minutes before the board unanimously voted to canvass the votes. Cavanaugh added “under duress” to his affirming vote.  

Goodman published an opinion piece yesterday claiming his fellow supervisor chose “grandstanding over governance” and was eroding “public confidence in government itself,” especially after losing his race for sheriff.  

“Over the course of the last three-and-a-half years, Cavanaugh’s claims, designed to inflame rather than inform, have been repeatedly debunked. But the damage is done,” he wrote.  

While Cavanaugh has not indicated if he plans to challenge the results, he will have until Monday to do so.  

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