Arizona’s economic recovery better than most

Arizona is recovering. Pinal County, not so much.

Still, the news is good for Maricopa.

“Pinal County will be the last of the markets (in the state) to recover,” economist and real-estate expert Elliott Pollack told members of the Pinal County Partnership Friday. “Other than Queen Creek and Maricopa, the other areas will come in later.”

There are fewer home builders in the state than during the boom and those building are doing so where potential homeowners can be close to jobs and transportation, Pollack said.

The state’s recovery is slow, “but 2013 will be better than 2012; 2014 will be better than 2013; and 2015 should be a good year,” Pollack said. “It will be the first year we’re back to normal.”

He admitted the economy probably feels good because of how bad it was. Make no mistake, “it is mediocre.” While the business and consumer sectors seem to be moving forward with the number of jobs and spending on the increase, government “is stupid” and the uncertainty of the fiscal cliff and Obamacare looms large, Pollack said.

It’s predicted that falling off the fiscal cliff could cost 45,000 to 50,000 jobs in Arizona, which would wipe out gains the state has made, he said.

Barring that, Arizona could be ranked fourth or fifth in the nation for job growth by the end of the year, Pollack said. In 2006, the state was second, dropping to 49 by 2009.

“Relative to everyone else, we’re doing very well,” he said.